尽管市场预期冷拔钢管价格有震荡上升的可能，但是很大程度上难以迅猛上升。原因是，中国经济整体呈现放慢的速度。中央政治局会议部署加快基建投资，只能是整体遏制投资增速下滑，仍难快速拉高投资增速，经济进入新的快速增长周期可能性不大。目前投资增速对经济的贡献率很低，经济主要靠消费拉动，对于短板领域的投资短期可以稳定经济增速，但是从中长期看，还是要寻找新的动力，包括加快税改等。
Although the market anticipates that the price of cold-drawn steel pipe may rise concussively, it is difficult to rise rapidly to a large extent. The reason is that China's economy as a whole is slowing down. Speeding up capital investment at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee can only curb the decline of investment growth as a whole, but it is still difficult to rapidly increase investment growth. It is unlikely that the economy will enter a new rapid growth cycle. At present, the contribution rate of investment growth to the economy is very low. The economy is mainly driven by consumption. The short-term investment in the short-board area can stabilize the economic growth, but in the medium and long term, we still need to find new impetus, including accelerating tax reform.
2008年中国4万亿投资启动后，钢铁的需求尽管整体在上升，但是价格很快下降，此后经过供给侧结构性改革去除数亿吨产能后，冷拔钢管价格才开始迅速回升。
After the start of China's 4 trillion yuan investment in 2008, although the overall demand for steel has risen, the price of steel has fallen rapidly. After removing hundreds of millions of tons of capacity through the structural reform on the supply side, the price of cold-drawn steel pipe began to rise rapidly.
根据国家发改委的安排，钢铁业目前和煤炭一样，已经从过去的去产能进入到了结构性去产能的新阶段，也就是说要培育优质产能，充分利用产能置换、指标交易等市场化手段，加快形成一批工艺先进、生产效率高、资源利用效率高、安全保障能力强、环境保护水平高、单位产品能耗低的优质产能，把结构调整过来。
According to the arrangement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the iron and steel industry, like coal, has entered a new stage of structural capacity removal from the past. That is to say, it is necessary to cultivate high-quality capacity, make full use of market-oriented means such as capacity replacement and index trading, and accelerate the formation of a batch of advanced technology, high production efficiency and resource utilization. High efficiency, strong security capability, high level of environmental protection, low energy consumption per unit product of high-quality production capacity, to adjust the structure.
同时鼓励有条件企业实施跨地区、跨所有制兼并重组，提升整合优质产能，把冷拔钢管行业高质量发展提高到一个新水平。
At the same time, conditional enterprises are encouraged to carry out cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations, enhance and integrate high-quality production capacity, and raise the high-quality development of cold-drawn steel pipe industry to a new level.
按此看，接下来各大钢铁公司产量可能会加快，这使得市场价格难以快速上升。未来一段时间，黑色产业链上的现货冷拔钢管价格依然会延续‘以稳为主、震荡上涨’的格局。
From this point of view, the next major steel companies may speed up production, which makes it difficult for market prices to rise rapidly. In the future, spot cold-drawn steel pipe prices in the black industry chain will continue the pattern of "stability-oriented, concussive rise".
要注意的是，国家发改委强调加快基建投资，但是仍要求控制负债水平。比如目前基建加快等只是限于补短板领域，各地主城区达不到300万人口要求的城市，仍不能修建地铁。
It should be noted that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes accelerating capital investment, but still requires controlling the debt level. For example, at present, the acceleration of infrastructure construction is only limited to the field of mending boards. Cities in the main urban areas of different regions can not meet the requirements of 3 million people, and metro construction is still impossible.
下一步要把补短板作为深化供给侧结构性改革的重点任务，加强基础设施领域补短板的力度，这不是说一定要非常大的规模扩大基础设施建设，而是切切实实补短板。
The next step is to take the shortage board as the key task of deepening the structural reform of the supply side, and strengthen the strength of the shortage board in the field of infrastructure. This does not mean that we must expand the infrastructure construction on a very large scale, but actually make up for the shortage board.
下半年环保限产继续加码使得钢铁生产增量有限；从下游需求来看，基建投资虽有所承压但仍有望平稳增长，房地产新开工和施工面积增速韧性仍在，制造业也有望成为钢铁需求的重要增长方向。加上今年春季需求释放较晚，建筑项目基本在二季度开工，为避免取暖季环保限产影响，在天气渐好的三季度施工强度将有所提升，带动冷拔钢管需求集中释放。
In the second half of the year, the increase of iron and steel production is limited because of the restriction of environmental protection and production. From the downstream demand point of view, although the investment in infrastructure is under pressure, it is expected to grow steadily. The growth of new real estate construction and construction area is still fast and tough, and the manufacturing industry is expected to become an important growth direction of iron and steel demand. With the late release of demand in spring this year, construction projects started in the second quarter. In order to avoid the impact of environmental protection and production restriction in the heating season, construction intensity will be increased in the third quarter when the weather is getting better, which will lead to the centralized release of cold-drawn steel pipe demand.
预计，2018年下半年国内冷拔钢管市场将呈现高位震荡、谨慎乐观态势，全年冷拔钢管价格重心进一步上移，整体涨幅在10%左右。
It is expected that in the second half of 2018, the domestic cold-drawn steel pipe market will show a high volatility and cautious optimism. The price center of the cold-drawn steel pipe will further move up, with an overall increase of about 10%.
