随着焊管价格的下跌，焊管厂吨钢亏损近300元，目前的焊管价格接近焊管厂的现金成本。实际上在焊管价格持续下跌过程中，由于原料库存及产成品库存原因，导致焊管厂的亏损远大于实时测算的生产盈亏。根据历史数据的测算，当吨钢亏损达到300元/吨时，将使焊管厂的现金收入为负，也就是说很快就会出现焊管厂减产。从近期的唐山钢企高炉开工率的数据中可以看到，近期，高炉开工率维持在91%附近，远低于年初的98.65%。事实上，我们统计的焊管企业多为规模较大、相对具有竞争力的焊管厂，而部分小型焊管厂的开工率远低于此。尤其是近期市场资金较为紧张，已经出现少数焊管厂由于资金链断裂而倒闭停产现象。由此看来，未来粗钢供应量有下降趋势。与此同时，钢协重点焊管企业库存也出现下降，4月重点钢企的焊管库存为4029万吨，5月此数据下降为3973万吨，预计6月重点钢企焊管库存将下降至3935万吨左右。同期，唐山钢坯的库存也出现持续下滑，由高点的197万吨跌至近期的88万吨，跌幅达56%。因此，仅从库存周期来看，焊管的清库周期快要结束，焊管价格蓄势待涨。
With the decline of welded pipe price, welded pipe factory lost nearly 300 yuan per ton of steel, and the current price of welded pipe is close to the cash cost of welded pipe factory. In fact, during the continuous decline of welded pipe price, due to the stock of raw materials and finished products, the loss of welded pipe factory is much larger than the real-time calculation of production profit and loss. According to the calculation of historical data, when the loss per ton of steel reaches 300 yuan/ton, the cash income of welded pipe plant will be negative, that is to say, the production of welded pipe plant will be reduced soon. From the recent data of blast furnace start-up rate in Tangshan Iron and Steel Company, it can be seen that in the near future, the blast furnace start-up rate maintained near 91%, much lower than the 98.65% at the beginning of the year. In fact, most of our statistical welded pipe enterprises are large-scale and relatively competitive welded pipe factories, while some small welded pipe factories have a much lower start-up rate. Especially in recent years, the market funds are relatively tight, and a few welded pipe factories have been shut down due to the breakage of the capital chain. From this point of view, the future supply of crude steel has a downward trend. At the same time, the inventory of the key welded pipe enterprises of the Steel Association also declined. In April, the inventory of the key steel enterprises was 40.29 million tons. In May, the data fell to 39.73 million tons. It is expected that the inventory of the key steel enterprises will drop to about 39.35 million tons in June. During the same period, Tangshan billet inventory also continued to decline, from 197,000 tons at the peak to 880,000 tons in the near future, a drop of 56%. Therefore, only from the inventory cycle point of view, the cleaning cycle of welded pipe is about to end, and the price of welded pipe is expected to rise.
